Tropical Cyclone (Lee) Information.
Hurricane Lee will be moving into western Nova Scotia / southern New Brunswick Saturday with heavy rains, high winds, and large waves, then weakening Saturday night with lingering conditions on Sunday. Intensity/classification: Category-
1 hurricane transitioning into into a strong post-tropical low while making landfall anywhere from Grand Manan Island New Brunswick to Shelburne County Nova Scotia Saturday evening. 1. Summary of basic information at 3:00 p.m. ADT. Location: 37.1 degrees North 66.6 degrees West. About 749 km south of Yarmouth. Maximum sustained winds: 130 kilometres per hour. Present movement: North around 35 kilometres per hour. Minimum central pressure: 962 millibars.
2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County in New Brunswick and from Digby County through to and including all of Halifax County in Nova Scotia.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the New Brunswick Fundy Coast and also the Northumberland coast from Tidnish to Shediac. Most of mainland Nova Scotia is also under a Tropical Storm Warning except northern Nova Scotia.
Rainfall warnings are in effect for most of New Brunswick with the exception of northwestern areas, and for portions of western mainland Nova Scotia. Rainfall warnings will also be issued later today for eastern regions of the Gaspe Peninsula, Anticosti Island and a portion of the Quebec Lower North Shore. Wind warnings are in effect for most of mainland Nova Scotia as well as the Fundy Coast of New Brunswick.
The circulation of Hurricane Lee will be quite broad as it reaches our region so impacts will occur not only near the track but up to 300 km or more away from it.
a. Wind.
Most likely region for worst impacts: western and central Nova Scotia, including Halifax County, as well as Grand Manan and Coastal Charlotte County region of New Brunswick. Areas under the tropical storm warning could see sustained winds of 70 km/h with gusts of 90 to 100 km/h. Areas under the hurricane watch will likely see the strongest winds, with potential gusts of 120 km/h. Given the abundance of rainfall over the past several months, and most recently Thursday, the ground is quite saturated and will be more prone to uprooted trees, especially those that are in full foliage. Widespread power outages appear likely across most of mainland Nova Scotia and near the Fundy Coast of New Brunswick. Some structural damage to roofing materials and siding, as well as exterior fixtures and fencing are expected.
b. Rainfall.
Heaviest rainfall threat will be near and to the left of the track and runs from western Nova Scotia northward through central and northeastern New Brunswick and into the Gaspe region, as well as the Quebec Lower North Shore out to Blanc-Sablon.
Rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm are possible, especially in areas near and to the left of the track. NOTE: Western Nova Scotia and the Annapolis Valley flooding risk has increased – there could be heavy amounts in the vicinity of the track itself with indications of possibly 75 mm or more directly from Lee. This combined with the rain that fell Thursday increases the vulnerability to further flooding in that area.
c. Surge/Waves.
High waves and elevated water levels will be widespread due to the large size of the storm – the most impacted areas are expected to cover much of the Atlantic coast of mainland Nova Scotia and to a much lesser extent, the Fundy coast of New Brunswick. Wave conditions will also become rough in areas in the western Gulf of St Lawrence / western Northumberland Strait but should remain below warning criteria. This includes all of the east coast of New Brunswick.
For Atlantic coastal Nova Scotia breaking waves of 4-6 metres (15 to 20 feet) are likely in areas facing the open ocean. Elevated water levels (storm surge) combined with waves will result in coastal flooding during the high tide late morning to noon Saturday from Shelburne County to Guysborough County then again during the high tide late Saturday evening. Water levels up to 1.5 metre (5 feet) above high tide is possible. Storm surge warnings are in effect from Shelburne County eastward to Guysborough County, giving a threat of damage to coastal infrastructure along with beach erosion.
3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.
Greatest waves and winds expected around the Bay of Fundy, Gulf of Maine and the southern Maritimes marine district. Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for southwestern waters near the track. Storm or gale warnings are in effect for most remaining waters. Significant wave heights of around 15 meters or so are possible for some offshore waters south of Nova Scotia.
Forecaster: March/Fogarty
Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion
Visit the Canadian Hurricane Centre to learn more about hurricanes.
Source: Environment Canada
